| Luminosity ( @ 2007-12-04 14:21:00 |
This book is about the rules that governs cramers trading.
about his rules that have helped him win in good and bad markets.
he wants you to win and he wants you to know the games that others are playing with you.
so further lets get to the body of the work that cramer has laid out for individuals with investment on the mind.
His chapter listing is as such
Staying in the game
Getting started the right way
How stocks are meant to be traded
Some investing basics
Spotting moves before they happen
Stock picking rules to live by
Creating your discretionary portfolio
Spotting bottoms in stocks
Spotting Tops
Advanced Strategies for speculators
Epilogue
Index
Staying in the game
is the essence of investing of not quitting when the going is rough and to continue doing homework even when the tides seems as though it is against you.
the fact of tides is that they recede as they also come.
It talks about intelligent investing and that no investor has infinite bullets to get it right so you have to be making good calls to stay in the game.
Stay tough so that you can get past the really bad years because the stock market is cyclical.
Getting started the right way
This chapter is very important it talks about cramers interest in speculation as well as the fact that he decries the buy and hold mentality. At some point you have to sell and no one is going to tell you when that time is so you have to figure it out for yourself. So this chapter takes you on a tour of thinking of thinking about the angles and playing them because you must.
He warns of penny stocks and shell companies and how you have to be on your guard so you are not taken by these companies so that you do not loose all that you have worked so hard for. This chapter talks about paychecks and how they almost never have enough left over to do any thing that really matters with. Thats part of the reason why I want to invest I want to be able to carry out the things that I have been thinking of so long with the environment of my creation.
Rules that beyer created that creamer thought was important
1 If you only learn from mistakes you will not repeat them
2 Only go to the tracks where there aren't lots of good players so you can clean up
3 Only bet on situations where you have total conviction
It takes homework to be a trader.
This chapter also discusses some of the things that happen when you are going to have an ipo.
How stocks are meant to be traded
Multiple * Price = Earnings
Price / Earnings = Multiple
Limits allow you to set prices without having to pay unless the trade is executed.
Multiples are often set improperly for small lesser known companies. When the economy turns down debt can be a real killer.
Some investing basics
This chapter discusses the idea of where your portfolio may want to be depending on risk and age. Although he certainly says that even early on some of your cash should go to retirement investments. Speculation is part of the key to his achievements. As time goes on you have to shift your focus so that you can live well as time passes. Separate your speculative pool from your retirement pool. Diversification is the only free lunch on wall street. At least five stock for diversification and one hour per week with those stocks for homework. Make sure you are investing in viable companies before you measure growth. Long term growth to determine purchases vs dollar amounts.
Shared ideas
creamer and buffett both follow the paper
buffett creamer and soros look for their inadequacies and change in situations
buffet and creamer believe in homework and keeping up with whats going on.
buffett and creamer, soros lived through some tricky deals and still have done well.
Spotting moves before they happen
This chapter talked about the specifics of a one point move and its exactly what you think its a large purchase by large brokerages or other people with large amounts of assets buying a large amount of assets. Market dislocation and fully valued sectors. Looking for big moves when you are looking for these moves you are focusing on the paper and the paranoia of the people. The psychology and the psychology of fear and the game that is generated by the psychological factors that make people make bad decisions because they are not keeping it together under stress and duress.
Different techniques and rules creamer uses for each cohort and discuss.
Rotational catalysts
shift group to group depending on macro backdrop.
estimate revision catalysts
secrets of large cap investing.
24 percent year no down years because he figured out the markets and which companies where going to beat expectations.
what happens when the fed changes things how it squeezes and expands cash flow. Cyclical buy and sell chart on pg 115.
the value of cash in some markets.
the importance of the fed.
sell in time.
valuing companies
40% management
30% fundamentals
15% technical analysis
15% alpha factor
Stock picking rules to live by
Tactics
wealthy money is impatient.
rules of the trade
never turn a trade into an investment
your first loss is your best loss
its okay to take a loss when you already have one
never turn a trading gain into an investment loss
tips are for waiters
you don't have to profit to sell
control losses winners take care of themselves
don't fear missing anything
don't trade headlines
dont trade flow
twenty five investment rules to live by
bulls and bears make money pigs get slaughtered
its okay to pay taxes
don't buy all at once arrogance is a sin
look for broken stocks not broken companies
diversification is the only free lunch
buy and homework not buy and hold
no one ever made a dime by panicking
own the best of the breed its worth it
he who defends everything defends nothing or why discipline trumps conviction
the fundamentals must be good in a takeover
dont own too many stocks
cash and sitting on the sidelines are fine alternatives
no woulda shoulda coulda
expect corrections don't be afraid of them
dont forget bonds
never subsidize losers with winners
hope is not part of the equation
be flexible
when high level people quit a company something is wrong
patience is a virtue giving up is a sin
just because someone says it on tv doesn't make it so
always wait thirty days after earnings preannouncement before you buy
never underestimate the wall street promotion machine
be able to explain your stock picks to someone else
there is always a bull market somewhere
Creating your discretionary portfolio
you will do time consuming sometimes tedious homework
spend an hour per position per week doing research
you must be interested in business
you must have someone to talk to about the idea
creamer can't encourage you to quit you have to endure
Spotting bottoms in stocks
Look for balance sheets that are out of whack vs long term fundamentals. first thing he gages is market sentiment. capitulation crescendo bottom sell offs the only people left are the people not moving. catalyst.
find the bottoms and buy and sell some on the way up.
Spotting Tops
Look for tops and sell before tops so that you don't kill your market appreciation. Competition caps companies as well as taking from them if a move happens in the other players zone. When ever management is vague it is a top because management wants to show off good results. Over expansion a company cannot handle its growth this causes a top. Government blindside, this happens when the gov changes rules and you get unexpected consequences. When retail cannot expand any more it hits a top. Fad stock tops occur when the fad is depleted of its energy and it's not going to go anywhere from there. Accounting mayhem things with the books seem cooked you have to get out. The grilled egg top you have to leave because its to hot and being in to long with force loss.
Advanced Strategies for speculators
The arithmetic of buying calls
call option
price = purchaseprice * 100 * option
shorts
Books that Cramer recommends
Reminiscences of a stock operator by jesse livermore - pseudonym ed lefevre
Picking winners by andy beyer
I like the fact that Jim Cramer has allot of passion about his subject.